Tactical insights for first-time founders to outsmart the burn, the churn & the breakdown.

Hey Founder,

It’s budget season, and for many, that means dragging last year’s spreadsheet back to life with a few hopeful tweaks.

But here’s the problem: A budget without a strategy is just a guess with good formatting.

If it’s not showing you where to double down, what to cut, or how to grow, it’s not helping.

So, how do you build a budget that actually drives your decisions?

That’s what we’re diving into this issue.

Most founders treat budgeting like a dental checkup: act calm, brace for pain, and hope nothing’s broken.

Then the ritual begins: open Excel, slap on some bold targets, pad the “safe bets,” and call it strategy.

But the best budgets? They start with sharp focus and ruthless honesty.

Take Shopify, a clear mission: empower merchants.

In 2023, they drifted into logistics.

Then course-corrected fast: 20% headcount cut, logistics arm sold, full focus restored.

CEO Tobi Lütke called it “paying unshared attention to our mission.”

They could afford the detour. Most can’t.

Shore, a SaaS for local businesses, learned it the hard way.

They chased everyone, scaled sales, and watched CAC balloon.

Only when they zoned in on their real ICP (salons, trainers, studios) and rebuilt inbound did things shift:

→ 12× rise in qualified leads

→ CAC down 35%

Lesson:

Loose budgets and vague strategies are a luxury few can afford.

Focus isn’t just a nice idea; it’s the difference between scaling and stalling.

Jason Fried once called financial projections “big, fat guesses.” He was being generous.

Here’s what really happens:

In December, teams bake in hopeful targets. By March, they’re scrambling, because they used numbers to sell a story, not steer the business.

The pros don’t budget to impress. They budget to decide. Here's how👇

1. Set a 1-Page North Star

Get clear:

→ What are we trying to achieve? (Mission + Focus Theme)

→ What does success look like? (3–5 measurable goals)

If it’s vague or uncountable, cut it.

2. Identify the Few Levers That Matter

What really drives your goals?

→ Pick 2–3 KPIs

→ Map the channels/actions that move them

→ Cut anything you can’t tie to ROI

3. Run a ‘Proof Audit’

Look at last year. What worked?

→ Talk to customers

→ Ignore sunk cost guilt

→ Double down on what actually delivered

4. Build 3 Budget Versions

→ Worst Case: Nothing goes to plan

→ Base Case: Your best guess

→ Best Case: Things take off

Use them as dials, not decorations.

5. Bake in Flexibility & Guardrails

→ Reserve 10–15% for pivots or tests

→ Set rules: no channel >30% of spend without proof

→ Add a 90-day rule: no ROI, no budget

6. Pressure-Test with the Team

→ Assign owners. Gut-check big bets together.

→ Ask: “Where are we overspending for zero gain?”

Fix it. Out loud. No silos.

7. Make It Live

→ Track monthly spend and KPIs in one simple sheet.

→ Pull in real data from your accounting tool.

→ Set alerts for anomalies.

When something breaks, find out now, not in Q4.

Want a budget that helps you steer, not just spend?

Build it like this.

This one came up in a real founder convo this week.

Here’s how: Run the math.

If your team or systems can’t support the number, it’s not a goal; it’s fiction.

1. Start with Capacity
→ How many reps?
→ What’s your average deal size, close rate, and cycle?
Then do the math: Revenue = Reps × Deals × Deal size If the math doesn’t work, the goal won’t either.

2. Plan 3 Scenarios
→ Committed: What you can hit now
→ Target: Needs tweaks (hires, channels)
→ Stretch: Big bets, new plays

Each one should come with the headcount and spend required. No fantasy targets.

3. Make It Real-Time
→ Break goals into quarters
→ Track pipeline, win rates, deal size
→ Set rules: no chasing revenue that kills margin or spikes CAC

Bottom line: If your goals aren’t tied to how your business actually runs, they won’t stick.

Send it my way, just hit reply.

Before you go…

A budget isn’t just where the money goes; it’s what the company chooses to become.

Every line reflects your priorities.

Done right, it balances survival with ambition.

Because spending with intention?

That’s the real moat.

See you next Thursday,

— Mariya

Hit reply and let me know. I read every single one (for real).

Hey, I’m Mariya, a startup CFO and founder of FounderFirst. After 10 years working alongside founders at early and growth-stage startups, I know how tough it is to make the right calls when resources are tight and the stakes are high. I started this newsletter to share the practical playbook I wish every founder had from day one, packed with lessons I’ve learned (and mistakes I’ve made) helping teams scale.

Mariya Valeva

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