Tactical insights for first-time founders to outsmart the burn, the churn & the breakdown.

Hey Founder,

Today’s story might hit a nerve.

And if it doesn’t, it’s still one every founder should hear.

Picture this: you’re at a rooftop event in NYC, chatting with someone who could be your next investor, partner, or dream customer.

You say the magic word: bootstrapped.

Suddenly, their eyes glaze over. You’ve been downgraded. Not because your business isn’t solid, but because it doesn’t “look” fundable.

And that, right there, is the trap.

Let’s talk about why that mindset of looking “fundable" is broken and how it quietly kills good businesses every day.

Let’s be honest: The startup world doesn’t reward sustainable growth; it rewards the appearance of it.

A great pitch deck. A “strategic” burn. Hockey stick projections.

We’ve glamorized the aesthetics of scale, not the substance.

I recently worked with a founder whose pitch looked airtight:

CAC trending down ✅

Churn “under control” ✅

Revenue set to triple ✅

But 10 minutes into the real numbers, the mask slipped.

Burn rate? Exploding.

Two paid channels that tanked? Omitted.

Retention after Month 4? In freefall.

This wasn’t deception.

It was the inevitable outcome of building a model for investors, not for operations.

When you start optimizing for the pitch, you stop optimizing for the business.

And that’s when the unraveling begins.

A financial model isn’t a PR asset, it’s your early warning system.

It tells you:

You don’t plan around capital. You plan around your runway.

(Yes, that’s your mic-drop moment.)

Here’s how I suggest you stress-test your model:

1. Calculate Your True Runway

2. Audit Your Unit Economics

3. Analyze Retention

4. Run the Default Alive Test

5. Model the Downside

Block 30 minutes this week, run these numbers, and see what you find.

Remember, rational optimism: if the story shifts, that’s not failure, it’s feedback. Now you get a chance to realign with what’s real.

A pre-seed SaaS founder asked me:

Here’s the hard truth: funding is perceived as traction.

It’s easier to brag about a round than explain churn.

But the founders who win in the long run?

They’re not optimizing for pitch decks. They’re building real businesses.

So next time someone asks about your raise, say this:

That's the kind of founder investors regret overlooking.

Send it my way, just hit reply.

Startup Cash Runway Calculator

Want to get a hang of your runway? Try this calculator.

A dead-simple spreadsheet to map burn vs. revenue.

Play with expense assumptions to see how long your cash really lasts.

I built this for the early-stage founders I work with. Now I’m sharing it here.

Grab the free template. Click below👇 to get access:

You don’t need to take my word for it.

Founder Jason Fried built Basecamp into a double-digit million-dollar profit machine without taking a single VC check.

Nathan Barry calls Kit an “anomaly” for never raising funding (and he’s proud of it!)

Both grew by caring more about revenue and profit than term sheets.

They didn’t optimize for decks. They optimized for margin.

And that? That’s the real moat.

See you next Thursday,

—Mariya

Hit reply and let me know. I read every single one (for real).

Hey, I’m Mariya, a startup CFO and founder of FounderFirst. After 10 years working alongside founders at early and growth-stage startups, I know how tough it is to make the right calls when resources are tight and the stakes are high. I started this newsletter to share the practical playbook I wish every founder had from day one, packed with lessons I’ve learned (and mistakes I’ve made) helping teams scale.

Mariya Valeva

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